Which Way Will the Jewish Vote Go?

On the eve of the election, I would like to address the successes and failures of both John McCain and Barack Obama’s campaigns in regard to courting the Jewish vote. Historically, the direction of the Jewish vote has been directed by Jew’s liberal political views and their allegiance to Israel. This campaign has presented a difficult choice for the Jews because neither candidate offers a definitive answer on both key issues. This election could possibly mark the second time since FDR in which the Democratic candidate doesn’t win at least 60% of the Jewish vote, the other being when Jimmy Carter ran against Ronald Reagan. In the minds of Jewish voters, both candidates have flaws, which will make for a very interesting election day.

Being a Democrat, Barack Obama seems like the logical Jewish choice, but he has suffered greatly from malicious attacks intended to unfairly portray him as a Muslim. In today’s world where terrorist attacks are on the forefront of most American’s minds, being labeled a Muslim can be looked at as somewhat of a death sentence, especially among Jewish voters. E-mails that have been circulating accusing Obama of being a Muslim are meant to evoke Jew’s fears of Obama’s support, or lack there of, for Israel. These attacks are ridiculous and haven’t been very effective, mostly because these claims simply aren’t true.

Among Jewish voters, Obama’s image also has been damaged by his willingness to meet without preconditions with dictators like Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Obama’s goal to change America’s image in the world is well taken, but the fact of the matter is Ahmadinejad has called Israel a “stinking corpse” and vowed to wipe it off the face of the earth. He refuses to acknowledge that the Holocaust ever happened and represents the rising Islamic extremist movement that is threatening Israel’s very existence. Obama’s perceived tolerance of this man only furthers Jewish fears of the effects that a looming Obama presidency will have on Israel.

Obama also has been hurt by his connection to his former pastor Jeremiah Wright. Wright has gone on the record to praise Louis Farrakhan, a well known Anti-Semitic. Past connections like these have made Jews weary of Obama throughout the whole campaign season.

While McCain doesn’t harbor any illusions of carrying the Jewish vote, he can severely hinder Obama’s campaign if he can make inroads into the Jewish community. Clearly, McCain’s biggest obstacle to winning significant Jewish support is his conservative ideology, which clashes with Jewish liberalism. However, he represents an interesting choice because of his history of support for Israel and his interest in continuing the strong relationship with Israel that President Bush has cultivated over the last eight years. Bush has received support from the Jewish community for this, and many Israelis feel that McCain would be a better choice for Israel because of his wealth of experience in foreign affairs. They feel that his experience is especially important considering the growing threat of Iran.

McCain also has benefitted from the endorsement and support from Senator Joe Lieberman. Lieberman is viewed as somewhat of a hero to some Jews for being the first Jew to be on the presidential ticket. Many Jews trust Lieberman, and his endorsement of McCain might influence the way some Jews vote.

It looked as if McCain was poised to take a sizable amount of the Jewish vote until his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate. His selection was clearly geared towards appeasing the Republican base and the Jewish population didn’t take it very well for a couple of reasons.

First, Palin’s almost fanatical conservative views on some social issues are making some Jews uneasy. Many Jews find it appalling that she refuses to support abortion even in cases of rape or incest. They see this as evidence that she is stubborn and anti-intellectual.

Second, many Jews have replaced questions of Obama’s inexperience with questions of Palin’s inexperience. Her lack of any foreign policy experience is frightening to most Jews because of the possibility that she might have to take over for McCain in office and deal directly with Israel. By choosing Palin as his running mate, McCain gave up his greatest advantage in the eyes of the Jewish electorate: experience.  

As we approach election day, Obama has seen his polling numbers among the Jewish community return to previous levels of Democratic support. His campaign has actively pursued the Jewish vote, with the great Schlep (described in detail in a previous post) being the most notable example. But, the state of the economy might have played an even bigger role than his outreach in his recent reversal of fortune. Like the rest of the electorate, most Jews see Obama as the more capable candidate in regards to the economy. Only since the recent meltdown on Wall Street has Obama approached previous levels of democratic support.

Obama has overcome the unfair stereotypes imposed upon him and seems poised to continue the tradition of overwhelming Jewish support for Democratic presidential candidates. 

For Further Reading:
http://www.jewishjournal.com/thegodblog/item/newsweek_on_the_fight_for_the_jewish_vote_20081013/
http://www.jewishjournal.com/thegodblog/item/anti_semitic_undercurrent_in_presidential_election_20081102/
http://www.jewishjournal.com/thegodblog/item/obama_or_mccain_who_will_jews_vote_for_20081016/
http://jta.org/news/article/2008/10/27/1000576/obama-labors-to-gain-jewish-trust-of-his-friends-and-his-policies
http://jta.org/news/article/2008/10/27/110884/mccain